10→ Football
Promedios table
The promedio (relegation average) is points divided by games played, from Copa de la Liga 2024 to Clausura 2026. See each club's promedio today, its projected final value and which season every point comes from.
Clausura 2026: zone phase · 22 league games left · Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
Averages: points divided by games
| Boca | 1 | 1.817 | 189 | 104 | 1.815 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River | 2 | 1.683 | 175 | 104 | 1.681 | 0 |
| Central | 3= | 1.654 | 172 | 104 | 1.656 | 0 |
| Vélez | 3= | 1.654 | 172 | 104 | 1.652 | 0 |
| Argentinos | 5 | 1.650 | 170 | 103 | 1.648 | 0 |
| Racing | 6 | 1.529 | 159 | 104 | 1.525 | 0 |
| Lanús | 7 | 1.524 | 157 | 103 | 1.527 | 0 |
| Independiente | 8 | 1.485 | 153 | 103 | 1.482 | 0 |
| Estudiantes (LP) | 9 | 1.452 | 151 | 104 | 1.450 | 0 |
| Huracán | 10 | 1.442 | 150 | 104 | 1.438 | 0 |
| Talleres | 11 | 1.385 | 144 | 104 | 1.385 | 0 |
| Defensa | 12= | 1.379 | 142 | 103 | 1.379 | 0 |
| Ind. Rivadavia | 12= | 1.379 | 142 | 103 | 1.378 | 0 |
| Barracas | 14 | 1.369 | 141 | 103 | 1.370 | 0 |
| Instituto | 15 | 1.356 | 141 | 104 | 1.358 | 0 |
| Gimnasia (LP) | 16 | 1.346 | 140 | 104 | 1.348 | 0 |
| Unión | 17 | 1.330 | 137 | 103 | 1.329 | 0 |
| San Lorenzo | 18 | 1.317 | 137 | 104 | 1.319 | 0 |
| Belgrano | 19 | 1.301 | 134 | 103 | 1.301 | 0 |
| Gimnasia (M) | 20 | 1.300 | 39 | 30 | 1.299 | 0 |
| Tigre | 21 | 1.192 | 124 | 104 | 1.195 | 0 |
| Platense | 22 | 1.184 | 122 | 103 | 1.190 | 0 |
| Riestra | 23 | 1.183 | 123 | 104 | 1.182 | 0 |
| Newell's | 24 | 1.146 | 118 | 103 | 1.149 | 0 |
| Atl. Tucumán | 25 | 1.117 | 115 | 103 | 1.120 | 0 |
| Central Córdoba | 26 | 1.068 | 110 | 103 | 1.068 | 0 |
| Sarmiento | 27 | 1.058 | 110 | 104 | 1.060 | 0 |
| Banfield | 28 | 1.049 | 108 | 103 | 1.055 | 0 |
| Aldosivi | 29 | 0.825 | 52 | 63 | 0.831 | 0 |
| Estudiantes (RC)▼ | 30 | 0.452 | 14 | 31 | 0.464 | 100% |
- last place: relegated by the averages if the season ended today
- = igualdad: exactly the same average (same fraction), shared place
- A dash: the club was not in Primera in that tournament.
How we compute it and its limits
- We play the rest of the season 20,000 times with a match model and count how often each thing happens.
- The model barely beats plain base rates: tested on 480 games of 2025 it picked the outcome 39.8% of the time, and always picking the home side 41.3% (log loss 1.0782 against 1.0837 for the base rates). Argentine football is very even; read the chances as rough.
- Goals of every future game come from the model, so goal difference counts.
- Ties that only Fair Play or a draw of lots can break are decided at random.
- A relegation play-off (desempate) is a neutral game; extra time and penalties are a coin flip.
What the regulation says
Quotes in the original Spanish.
será de aplicación lo establecido en el artículo 111 del Reglamento General de AFA, que establece la realización de partido/s de desempate.
Art. 24.4, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)La determinación de los descensos y ascensos de y a la Liga Profesional de Fútbol se regirá conforme lo dispuesto en el artículo 93 del Estatuto de la Asociación del Fútbol Argentino.
Art. 26.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Para el caso de igualdad en puntos entre dos o más equipos en posiciones que definan descenso (sean las mismas por promedio o por posición en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026 definida en el artículo 24) será de aplicación lo establecido en el artículo 111 del Reglamento General de AFA, que establece la realización de partido/s de desempate.
Art. 26.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El reglamento establece que descienden el último de los promedios y el último de la anual .
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)Si un mismo club termina en el fondo de ambas tablas, pierde la categoría por los promedios y el otro descenso corresponde al siguiente equipo de la clasificación acumulada.
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)Los partidos de los playoffs no se contabilizan para esa clasificación ni para los promedios.
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)con 70 puntos en los 73 partidos que disputó entre 2024 y 2025
Los equipos que comenzarán 2026 comprometidos con el descenso (Hoy Día Córdoba) (Nov 18, 2025)
How the average worksRelegation chancesSimulatorWithout averages
The math
Promedio = points ÷ games played
Example: Banfield: 108 ÷ 103 = 1.049.
How it is built
- WindowThe last 6 tournaments count: from Copa de la Liga 2024 to Clausura 2026.
- Regular phase onlyPlayoff games do not count for the promedios. Only regular phase games do.
- Newly promotedA recently promoted club divides only the games it played in the top flight.
- The last oneThe last club in the promedios table is relegated.
Today and projected
Today
- With the games already played
- Changes after every round
Projected
- Adds the remaining games with the model
- The expected promedio over 20,000 simulated seasons
Questions
How is the promedio worked out step by step?
Add up the points of every tournament in the window and divide by the games played. The promedio calculator does it with you.
Which tournaments count next year?
We assume the same number of tournaments, 6, starting from Apertura 2025. It stays an assumption until the 2027 regulation is out.
Where does the window of tournaments come from?
The LPF regulation points to article 93 of the AFA statute, which we could not find published. The window comes from the press (Hoy Día Córdoba, 18 November 2025) and matches every club's points and games in our data.
What would happen without promedios?
The bottom 2 of the annual table would go down. See who would have been relegated on without promedios.