152→ Odds
Asian handicap
Pick the line and the odds: the table shows what comes back to you for each goal difference. Quarter lines split your stake in two.
Model: expected goals (Poisson)
If your team...
| Result | Bet | You get back | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins by 4 or more | Wins | $1,950 | +$950 |
| Wins by 3 | Wins | $1,950 | +$950 |
| Wins by 2 | Wins | $1,950 | +$950 |
| Wins by 1 | Half win | $1,475 | +$475 |
| Draws | Loses | $0 | -$1,000 |
| Loses by 1 or more | Loses | $0 | -$1,000 |
Wins by 1: $500 at −1 → comes back + $500 at −0.5 → wins
With 1.5 goals against 1.1
- Wins 23.2%
- Half win 23.2%
- Loses 53.6%
The model is an assumption you choose, not a prediction: goals of each team independent, at the average you typed.
Show the formula
Result of each part = goal difference + line. Above 0 it wins, 0 is a push, below 0 it loses.
Quarter line L: half the stake at L − 0.25 and half at L + 0.25.
Average per peso = odds × A + B − 1 (A: share that wins, B: share returned).
Fair odds = (1 − B) ÷ A
The rule for each part
goal difference + line
Example: above zero wins, zero is a push, below zero loses. The line −0.75 is played as −1 + −0.5, with $500 on each.
An example with the line −0.75
- The bet$1,000 on your team with handicap −0.75 at odds 1.95.
- Wins by twoBoth halves win: you get back $1,950.
- Wins by oneThe half at −0.5 wins and pays $975; the half at −1 is a push. Total: $1,475.
- Draws or losesBoth halves lose. Nothing comes back.
What happens on each line
| Line | Wins by 2 | Wins by 1 | Draws | Loses by 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.5 | Wins | Wins | Wins | Loses |
| +0.25 | Wins | Wins | Half win | Loses |
| 0 | Wins | Wins | Push | Loses |
| −0.25 | Wins | Wins | Half loss | Loses |
| −0.5 | Wins | Wins | Loses | Loses |
| −0.75 | Wins | Half win | Loses | Loses |
| −1 | Wins | Push | Loses | Loses |
The line is your team's. Half win or half loss: one half of the stake is settled and the other comes back.
Handicap words
- Whole line
- Zero, one, two. If the goal difference cancels it exactly, your stake comes back.
- Half line
- Ends in half a goal. A push is impossible: it either wins or loses.
- Quarter line
- Ends in a quarter. Half the stake goes on the line above and half on the line below.
- Push
- The stake on that part comes back, with no win and no loss.
Questions
What does an Asian handicap of −0.75 mean?
Your stake is split in two: half at −0.5 and half at −1. If your team wins by one, half the bet wins and the other half comes back.
What is an Asian handicap of 0?
It is a bet on your team to win, but if the match is drawn your stake comes back. If your team loses, you lose it.
Does the goals model tell me who will win?
No. It is an assumption you type in (each team's average goals) to see how the results spread. Change the numbers and see how much everything moves.
What are the fair odds in the calculator?
The odds at which, under your model, the average would be zero. The bookmaker pays less than the fair odds (that is its margin), so on average the bet loses money.