10→ Football
Who is going down?
Each club's chance to lose its place: by promedios (relegation averages), by annual table and in total. It reads simply: "goes down in so many of every 100 simulated seasons".
Clausura 2026: zone phase · 22 league games left · Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
Relegation
Already settled: Estudiantes de Río Cuarto and Aldosivi
Estudiantes (RC) cannot leave the last place of the averages and Aldosivi cannot catch the club above it in the annual table, even winning every game left.
Closest to relegation
- Estudiantes (RC)down100%Relegated: no result left can save it.
- Aldosividown100%Relegated: no result left can save it.
Averages: last places
- 27. Sarmiento1.058
- 28. Banfield1.049
- 29. Aldosivi0.825
- 30. Estudiantes (RC)0.452
Annual table: last places
- 27. Central Córdoba26 pts
- 28. Riestra23 pts
- 29. Aldosivi19 pts
- 30. Estudiantes (RC)14 pts
Estudiantes (RC) is last in both tables: it goes down by the averages, and the second place goes to the next club of the annual table, Aldosivi.
Relegation chance by club
| Estudiantes (RC)▼ | 100% | 100% | 0 | 0.452 pos. 30 | 0.464 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi▼ | 100% | 0 | 100% | 0.825 pos. 29 | 0.831 | 19 |
| Banfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.049 pos. 28 | 1.055 | 32 |
| Sarmiento | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.058 pos. 27 | 1.060 | 40 |
| Central Córdoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.068 pos. 26 | 1.068 | 26 |
| Atl. Tucumán | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.117 pos. 25 | 1.120 | 31 |
| Newell's | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.146 pos. 24 | 1.149 | 36 |
| Riestra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.183 pos. 23 | 1.182 | 23 |
| Platense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.184 pos. 22 | 1.190 | 30 |
| Tigre | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.192 pos. 21 | 1.195 | 36 |
| Gimnasia (M) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.300 pos. 20 | 1.299 | 39 |
| Belgrano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.301 pos. 19 | 1.301 | 48 |
| San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.317 pos. 18 | 1.319 | 41 |
| Unión | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.330 pos. 17 | 1.329 | 38 |
| Gimnasia (LP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.346 pos. 16 | 1.348 | 54 |
| Instituto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.356 pos. 15 | 1.358 | 54 |
| Barracas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.369 pos. 14 | 1.370 | 43 |
| Defensa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.379 pos. 12= | 1.379 | 46 |
| Ind. Rivadavia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.379 pos. 12= | 1.378 | 53 |
| Talleres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.385 pos. 11 | 1.385 | 38 |
| Huracán | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.442 pos. 10 | 1.438 | 41 |
| Estudiantes (LP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.452 pos. 9 | 1.450 | 46 |
| Independiente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.485 pos. 8 | 1.482 | 43 |
| Lanús | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.524 pos. 7 | 1.527 | 48 |
| Racing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.529 pos. 6 | 1.525 | 36 |
| Argentinos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.650 pos. 5 | 1.648 | 57 |
| Central | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.654 pos. 3= | 1.656 | 59 |
| Vélez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.654 pos. 3= | 1.652 | 56 |
| River | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.683 pos. 2 | 1.681 | 52 |
| Boca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.817 pos. 1 | 1.815 | 60 |
How we compute it and its limits
- We play the rest of the season 20,000 times with a match model and count how often each thing happens.
- The model barely beats plain base rates: tested on 480 games of 2025 it picked the outcome 39.8% of the time, and always picking the home side 41.3% (log loss 1.0782 against 1.0837 for the base rates). Argentine football is very even; read the chances as rough.
- Goals of every future game come from the model, so goal difference counts.
- Ties that only Fair Play or a draw of lots can break are decided at random.
- A relegation play-off (desempate) is a neutral game; extra time and penalties are a coin flip.
What the regulation says
Quotes in the original Spanish.
será de aplicación lo establecido en el artículo 111 del Reglamento General de AFA, que establece la realización de partido/s de desempate.
Art. 24.4, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)La determinación de los descensos y ascensos de y a la Liga Profesional de Fútbol se regirá conforme lo dispuesto en el artículo 93 del Estatuto de la Asociación del Fútbol Argentino.
Art. 26.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Para el caso de igualdad en puntos entre dos o más equipos en posiciones que definan descenso (sean las mismas por promedio o por posición en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026 definida en el artículo 24) será de aplicación lo establecido en el artículo 111 del Reglamento General de AFA, que establece la realización de partido/s de desempate.
Art. 26.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El reglamento establece que descienden el último de los promedios y el último de la anual .
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)Si un mismo club termina en el fondo de ambas tablas, pierde la categoría por los promedios y el otro descenso corresponde al siguiente equipo de la clasificación acumulada.
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)Los partidos de los playoffs no se contabilizan para esa clasificación ni para los promedios.
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)con 70 puntos en los 73 partidos que disputó entre 2024 y 2025
Los equipos que comenzarán 2026 comprometidos con el descenso (Hoy Día Córdoba) (Nov 18, 2025)
Simulate the games leftPoints neededAveragesWithout averages
The relegation rule
- PromediosThe last club in the promedios table goes down: points divided by games over the last 6 tournaments.
- Annual tableThe last club in the annual table goes down too. It adds up the Apertura and Clausura points.
- Same clubIf one club is last in both tables, it goes down by promedios. The other place goes to the second-to-last of the annual table.
- LevelIf two clubs are level in a relegation spot, they play a desempate match (article 26.2).
Two ways down
By promedios
- Counts several seasons, not just this one
- A newly promoted club divides only its top-flight games
- Punishes a long bad run
By annual table
- Counts only this year's points
- A big club with a bad year can fall too
- Sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored
What the tool simplifies
| Topic | How it counts |
|---|---|
| Remaining games | Goals come from the match model |
| Fair Play and drawing lots | Settled at random |
| Desempate | Neutral ground; extra time and penalties 50/50 |
| Three clubs level | Two play, the loser meets the third (assumed format) |
The chances come from 20,000 simulated seasons.
Questions
Where does the relegation rule come from?
The LPF regulation points to article 93 of the AFA statute, which we could not find published. So the rule is taken from the press: El Economista, 15 October 2026. The tool shows the quotes.
What if one club is last in both tables?
It goes down by promedios. The second relegation spot goes to the second-to-last of the annual table.
How many points does my club need?
See how many points each club needs to stay up, or try results in the relegation simulator.