10→ Predictor

Can you beat a coin?

Make your picks for the round with one tap per game. The math tells you how many times in a hundred your picks beat tossing a coin, rolling a die and the model's favourite.

The model beats the coin in48.6%of rounds of 8 games (23% tie)

Round 15, Torneo Clausura 2026, with the model chances

  1. Belgrano – BarracasNov 1, 2026

  2. Newell's – UniónNov 1, 2026

  3. Lanús – Gimnasia (M)Nov 1, 2026

  4. Platense – Central CórdobaNov 2, 2026

  5. Defensa – IndependienteNov 2, 2026

  6. Atl. Tucumán – ArgentinosNov 2, 2026

  7. Ind. Rivadavia – BanfieldNov 2, 2026

  8. Aldosivi – RiverNov 8, 2026

Pick the games below. For now: always going with the favourite expects 3.4 hits, the coin 2.9.

  • wins
  • tie
  • loses

The model vs the coin

The model vs a die

Model hits and coin hits

  • The model
  • The coin

One point per right outcome (home, draw or away). The coin picks home or away, never a draw.

Illustration: Can you beat a coin?

Two silly rivals and a smart one

The coinHome or away, half each. Never a draw.
The dieHome, draw or away, a third each.
The modelAlways goes with the most likely result of each game.

An example of 10 games

StrategyExpected hits
Always the favourite5.0
Coin3.8
Die3.3

Every game: home 50%, draw 25%, away 25%.

Questions

Why does the coin never pick a draw?

Because a coin has two sides: home or away. The die does include the draw.

How is the exact chance worked out?

Every possible result of each game is combined with your pick and the rival's pick, without simulations.

Should I always pick the favourite?

On average it gets more hits, but it does not always win: in a short round anyone can come out on top.