29→ Cups
Copa Argentina: bracket with chances
The Copa Argentina bracket with a number on every tie: who reaches the final and who wins it, from club ratings and thousands of simulations.
Who lifts the cup 2026
Bracket
Percentages: chance of going through each pending tie. Pairs are shown by date; the draw letters are not in the data.
Round of 16
on penalties
on penalties
on penalties
on penalties
Quarter-finals
on penalties
on penalties
Semi-finals
on penalties
Sat Nov 14 19:00
Final
Date and venue not in the data yet
Earlier rounds
Round of 64
- Ind. Rivadavia 2–0 Estudiantes
- Lanús 4–1 Sarmiento (LB)
- Estudiantes 4–0 Ituzaingó
- Argentinos 1–1 (5–6) Midland
- Talleres 2–0 Argentino Merlo
- Platense 1–0 Argentino MM
- Riestra 1–0 Maipú
- Barracas 2–2 (4–3) Temperley
- Rosario Central 2–0 Sp. Belgrano
- C. Córdoba (SE) 2–2 (4–5) Gimnasia J.
- Aldosivi 3–0 San Miguel
- Tigre 2–0 Claypole
- River Plate 1–0 Ciudad Bolívar
- Boca 2–0 Chivilcoy
- San Martín SJ 2–0 Dep. Madryn
- Godoy Cruz 0–1 Morón
- San Lorenzo 5–0 Rincón
- Atl Tucumán 2–1 Sp. Barracas
- Banfield 3–0 Real Pilar
- Independiente 4–2 Atenas
- Belgrano 3–0 Rafaela
- Racing 1–0 SM Formosa
- Huracán 2–1 Olimpo
- Newell's 0–2 Acassuso
- Unión (SF) 2–0 Agropecuario
- Def. y Jus. 2–1 Chaco
- Instituto 2–0 Atlanta
- Estudiantes RC 0–0 (3–4) San Martín (T)
- Vélez 4–1 Armenio
- Sarmiento (J) 1–0 T. Suárez
- Gimnasia LP 4–1 Camioneros
- Gimnasia (M) 0–0 (3–4) G y T (Salta)
Round of 32
- Acassuso 0–3 Gimnasia LP
- Morón 1–2 Midland
- Vélez 2–0 G y T (Salta)
- Banfield 1–1 (5–4) San Martín (T)
- Platense 0–0 (4–3) San Martín SJ
- Talleres 0–3 Atl Tucumán
- Unión (SF) 0–2 Independiente
- Gimnasia J. 2–2 (2–4) Belgrano
- Instituto 2–1 Lanús
- Estudiantes 3–0 Rosario Central
- Barracas 1–0 Huracán
- Ind. Rivadavia 1–0 Tigre
- Racing 4–1 Def. y Jus.
- Sarmiento (J) 0–2 Boca
- San Lorenzo 1–1 (4–5) Riestra
- River Plate 1–3 Aldosivi
Chance per round
| Club | To the final | Champion |
|---|---|---|
| Boca | 76.3% | 54.6% |
| Platense | 100.0% | 35.0% |
| Banfield | 23.7% | 10.4% |
20,000 simulations of the rest of the cup; pairs not drawn yet are made at random in each one.
How we compute it
- Every club has an Elo-type rating built from 10,515 matches since 2024 (CONMEBOL cups, Copa Argentina and the top leagues of ten countries).
- Goals of each side follow a Poisson law from the rating gap; home advantage is worth 70 rating points.
- Extra time counts as a third of a match at the same scoring rate.
- A penalty shoot-out is a coin flip (50% each side): a neutral assumption, not a measured rate.
- Clubs from high altitude (Bolivia, Quito) come out over-rated: one home advantage is used for every stadium.
- Every tie is one match at a stadium chosen by the AFA; a draw after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties (Copa Argentina 2026 rules, art. 8).
- We treat every Copa Argentina venue as neutral ground: that is a model assumption, not a rule.
- Later pairs follow the diagram of the draw, which is not in our data: until a pair is published, it is made at random in each simulation.
Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
How the Copa Argentina works
- Bracket64 clubs from every division in a straight knock-out bracket, from the round of 64.
- One matchEvery tie is a single match at a stadium chosen by the AFA.
- PenaltiesLevel after 90 minutes: straight to penalties. There is no extra time.
- PrizeThe winner gets a place in the next year's Copa Libertadores.
Bracket words
- Round of 64
- First round of the final phase, with all 64 clubs.
- Diagram
- The order of the ties set by the draw. Until a tie is published, we make it at random in each simulation.
- Chance to go through
- How many times in a hundred that side wins the tie, by the model.
More cups
Questions
Does the Copa Argentina have extra time?
No. If a match is level after 90 minutes, it goes straight to penalties (Copa Argentina 2026 rules).
What does the Copa Argentina winner get?
A place in the next year's Copa Libertadores, under the AFA rules.
Why does a lower-division club have a chance at all?
Because it is one match and, in the model, a shoot-out is a coin flip. The model gives lower-division clubs a lower rating, but their chance is never zero.