10→ Football
When will your club win the title?
Choose the chance of winning each tournament, how many tournaments a year and how many years your club has gone without a title. You get the average wait and how it spreads year by year.
With 3.3% per tournament and 2 tournaments a year, your club wins at least one title in 6.6% of years.
11years: half of the time the title comes before this
34years to be 90% sure
49%chance of a title within 10 years
In which year does the next title come?
The tallest bar is always next year: each year is a new draw. Red bar: the median year.
A year with Apertura and Clausura
Chance in the year = 1 – (1 – chance per tournament) × (1 – chance per tournament)
Example: With 30 equal clubs, each tournament gives 3.3% and the whole year 6.6%.
The equal clubs example
Questions
What chance should I give my club?
Whatever feels fair. If unsure, pick All clubs equal: one divided by the number of clubs. Raise it for a big club, lower it for a newly promoted one.
Why is next year always the most likely?
Because to win only in two years, you first have to not win next year. Every extra year adds one more condition.
Does it predict when my club will win?
No. It is the math of chance with the number you choose. It shows how long a wait can last with nothing strange going on.