10→ Predictor

How to score a predictor game

The same pick is worth different points depending on the scoring. Enter your picks and see their expected points under each system and how far they are from the best possible pick.

Your picks expect, with this system8.44points out of 9.32 possible (91%)
Scoring system

Next Liga Profesional games. Score chances from the site model.

  1. –0.97best 1–1: 1.12
  2. –1.06best 1–0: 1.16
  3. –1.13best 1–0: 1.27
  4. –1.13best 1–0: 1.20
  5. –1.13best 1–0: 1.25
  6. –0.96best 1–1: 1.11
  7. –1.00best 1–0: 1.05
  8. –1.06best 0–1: 1.15

Your picks start with the classic 2-1 for the favourite. Change them and watch the points.

Outcome only100%3.36 of 3.36 points

Exact 3, outcome 185%4.67 of 5.51 points

Exact 5, difference 3, outcome 191%8.44 of 9.32 points

The more points a system gives for exact scores, the more a bold pick costs you: rare scores add a lot but rarely happen.

Score chances: Belgrano – Barracas

01234
012%13%6.3%2.1%0.5%
114%13%6.8%2.3%0.6%
27.2%7.2%3.6%1.2%0.3%
32.6%2.6%1.3%0.4%0.1%
40.7%0.7%0.3%0.1%~0
  • Rows: goals of Belgrano; columns: goals of Barracas.
  • best pick (1–1)
  • your pick
Illustration: How to score a predictor game

Two ways to play

The fan's pick

  • A 3–1 home win, goals and glory.
  • With exact, difference and outcome it expects 0.78 points.
  • Scores big when it lands; it rarely lands.

The cold pick

  • The score with the most expected points: 1–0.
  • In the same system it expects 1.13 points.
  • Low scores, because they happen most.

What to look at

  1. The systemThe more points the exact score gives, the more choosing the right scoreline matters.
  2. The mapThe grid shows the chance of every score of the chosen game.
  3. The bestThe yellow frame marks the pick with the most expected points under that system.

Questions

Which system is best?

None: they reward different things. Outcome only rewards reading who wins; exact score systems also reward getting the scoreline.

What are expected points?

What the pick would score on average if the game were played many times with the same chances.

Where do the score chances come from?

From the site goals model for the next Liga Profesional games, or from an example game when there is no fresh data.