29→ Cups

Copa Sudamericana: who goes through?

The whole Copa Sudamericana on one screen: first stage, groups, play-offs and bracket. Every pending tie shows each side's chance.

Final 2026 · Sat Nov 21, 19:30 (Argentina time)

BRAAtlético-MG39.4%

ARGBoca60.6%

Title chance by our model. Favourite: Boca.

The final in detail: 90 minutes, extra time and penalties →

Bracket

Percentages: chance of going through each pending tie. Pairs are shown by date; the draw letters are not in the data.

Round of 16

ARGBoca7✓

PARDep. Recoleta1

3–1 · 4–0

BOLBolívar2

BRASão Paulo4✓

1–1 · 1–3

BRABragantino2

BRAAtlético-MG3✓

0–1 · 2–2

ARGTigre1

URUMC Torque3✓

0–1 · 1–2

BRASantos2✓

ECUMacará1

2–1 · 0–0

BRAVasco4✓

PAROlimpia1

0–0 · 4–1

PERCienciano6✓

BRABotafogo2

6–1 · 0–1

COLSanta Fe1(8)✓

ARGRiver Plate1(7)

0–0 · 1–1 · on penalties

Quarter-finals

COLSanta Fe0

BRAVasco2✓

0–0 · 0–2

ARGBoca2✓

BRASão Paulo1

1–0 · 1–1

BRASantos4(1)

BRAAtlético-MG4(3)✓

2–0 · 2–4 · on penalties

PERCienciano2

URUMC Torque3✓

2–0 · 0–3

Semi-finals

ARGBoca3✓

BRAVasco2

0–1 · 3–1

BRAAtlético-MG3✓

URUMC Torque2

3–0 · 0–2

Final

BRAAtlético-MG39%

ARGBoca61%

Sat Nov 21 19:30

Which country takes the cup

Argentina60.6%
Brazil39.4%

Final group tables

Group A

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	ECUMacará	6	+3	10
2	ARGTigre	6	+3	9
3	COLAmérica Cali	6	+1	9
4	PERAlianza Atl	6	-7	2

Group B

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	BRAAtlético-MG	6	+2	10
2	PERCienciano	6	-2	8
3	URUJuventud	6	+3	7
4	VENPuerto Cabello	6	-3	7

Group C

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	BRASão Paulo	6	+5	12
2	CHIO'Higgins	6	+2	10
3	COLMillonarios	6	0	8
4	URUBoston River	6	-7	3

Group D

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	PARDep. Recoleta	6	+1	8
2	BRASantos	6	+2	7
3	ARGSan Lorenzo	6	+1	7
4	ECUCuenca	6	-4	6

Group E

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	BRABotafogo	6	+10	16
2	VENCaracas	6	0	9
3	ARGRacing	6	+2	8
4	BOLCI Petrolero	6	-12	0

Group F

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	URUMC Torque	6	+6	13
2	BRAGrêmio	6	+5	11
3	ARGRiestra	6	-6	5
4	CHIPalestino	6	-5	3

Group G

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	PAROlimpia	6	+4	13
2	BRAVasco	6	+4	10
3	CHIAudax Italiano	6	-2	7
4	ARGBarracas	6	-6	3

Group H

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	ARGRiver Plate	6	+6	14
2	BRABragantino	6	+7	10
3	VENCarabobo	6	+1	9
4	BOLBlooming	6	-14	1

How we compute it

Every club has an Elo-type rating built from 10,515 matches since 2024 (CONMEBOL cups, Copa Argentina and the top leagues of ten countries).
Goals of each side follow a Poisson law from the rating gap; home advantage is worth 70 rating points.
Extra time counts as a third of a match at the same scoring rate.
A penalty shoot-out is a coin flip (50% each side): a neutral assumption, not a measured rate.
Clubs from high altitude (Bolivia, Quito) come out over-rated: one home advantage is used for every stadium.
First stage: one match, a draw goes straight to penalties. Two-leg ties: goal difference, then penalties, no extra time (CONMEBOL Manual de Clubes 2026).
The final is one match at a venue chosen by CONMEBOL: 30 minutes of extra time, then penalties. We treat the venue as neutral.

Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)

Illustration: Copa Sudamericana: who goes through?

How the Sudamericana works

First stageOne match between clubs of the same country. A draw goes straight to penalties.
Groups8 groups of four. The winner goes straight to the round of 16; the runner-up plays a play-off.
Play-offsSudamericana runners-up against the third-placed teams of the Libertadores groups, over two legs.
Round of 16 to semisTwo legs: goal difference, then penalties, no extra time.
FinalOne match at a CONMEBOL venue, with 30 minutes of extra time and penalties if needed.

Sudamericana and Libertadores

Sudamericana

Only the group winner goes straight to the round of 16.
The runner-up plays a two-leg play-off.
It takes in the Libertadores third places.

Libertadores

The top two of each group go straight to the round of 16.
No play-off after the groups.
Its third places drop to the Sudamericana.

Follow the cup

The finalAtlético-MG and Boca in Barranquilla: each side's chance in 90 minutes, extra time and penalties.RecopaThe champion plays the Libertadores winner over two legs.LibertadoresGroups, bracket and title chances of the other cup.

Questions

How many teams go through from each Sudamericana group?

The winner goes straight to the round of 16. The runner-up plays a two-leg play-off against a Libertadores third place; the winner of that tie joins the round of 16.

Why do some teams come from the Libertadores?

Because the third-placed team of each Libertadores group drops into the Sudamericana and plays those play-offs.

How is each club's chance computed?

With a rating built on 10,515 matches since 2024 and thousands of simulations of the bracket. It is a model: it knows nothing about injuries or squads.

What does the model assume?

Penalties: 50% each side, a neutral assumption. Extra time in the final: a third of a match at the same scoring rate. There is one home advantage for every club, so high-altitude clubs (Bolivia, Quito) can come out stronger than they are away from home.