10→ Football
How Much Is Home Advantage Worth?
Using every league game since 2024: how often the home side wins, how many more goals and points it gets and which clubs their ground helps most.
Home winDrawAway win
- Goals at home
- 1.17per game
- Goals away
- 0.90per game
- Points at home
- 1.58per game
- Points away
- 1.11per game
Playing at home is worth about 0.47 points per game over playing away.
Our match model, fitted on the same games, gives the home side 12% more expected goals.
| Season | Games | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copa de la Liga 2024 | 196 | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Liga 2024 | 378 | 45% | 34% | 21% |
| Apertura 2025 | 240 | 44% | 31% | 25% |
| Clausura 2025 | 240 | 38% | 33% | 28% |
| Apertura 2026 | 240 | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| Clausura 2026 (in progress) | 218 | 44% | 27% | 30% |
Whose ground helps most
Points per game at home and away; clubs with at least 20 games each way.
| Club | Pts home | Pts away | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos | 2.33 | 0.96 | +1.37 |
| Atl. Tucumán | 1.56 | 0.67 | +0.89 |
| Boca | 2.25 | 1.40 | +0.86 |
| Riestra | 1.58 | 0.76 | +0.82 |
| Estudiantes (LP) | 1.83 | 1.08 | +0.75 |
Smallest gap
| Club | Pts home | Pts away | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barracas | 1.31 | 1.42 | -0.11 |
| Talleres | 1.41 | 1.36 | +0.05 |
| Belgrano | 1.38 | 1.22 | +0.17 |
Data: regular-phase games of the Liga Profesional and the Copa de la Liga in our data (ESPN), play-offs left out.
Every game with its chances →Fixture coloured by difficulty →
All games in one table
| Item | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 42% | 26% |
| Goals per game | 1.17 | 0.90 |
| Points per game | 1.58 | 1.11 |
1,512 regular-phase games since 2024; draws: 31%.
Where the edge comes from
- More goalsOn average, the home side scores more goals and concedes fewer than the away side.
- More pointsThree for a win and one for a draw: added up, the home side takes clearly more than the away side.
- In the modelOur match model adds 12% to the home side's expected goals.
Keep going
Questions
How often does the home side win in the league?
In our data since 2024, the home side won 42% of the games, the away side 26% and 31% were drawn.
Why does the home side come out ahead so often?
The usual reasons given are the familiar pitch, the rival's trip and the crowd. We do not split the causes here; we measure the total effect.
Which games are included?
Regular-phase games of the Liga Profesional and the Copa de la Liga we hold with a source, the current tournament included.