29→ Cups

Copa Libertadores: who goes through?

Groups, bracket and final of the Copa Libertadores on one screen. Every pending tie shows each side's chance, computed from club ratings and thousands of simulations.

Final 2026 · Sat Nov 28, 17:00 (Argentina time)

BRAPalmeiras72.5%

ARGEstudiantes27.5%

Title chance by our model. Favourite: Palmeiras.

The final in detail: 90 minutes, extra time and penalties →

Bracket

Percentages: chance of going through each pending tie. Pairs are shown by date; the draw letters are not in the data.

Round of 16

BRAFluminense1(5)✓

ARGInd. Rivadavia1(4)

0–0 · 1–1 · on penalties

ARGEstudiantes4✓

CHIU Católica1

1–1 · 3–0

BRAPalmeiras2✓

PARCerro Porteño1

1–1 · 1–0

ARGPlatense1(7)✓

CHICoquimbo1(6)

1–1 · 0–0 · on penalties

BRACruzeiro2

BRAFlamengo3✓

1–1 · 1–2

BRAMirassol1(4)

ECULDU1(5)✓

1–1 · 0–0 · on penalties

ARGRosario Central0

BRACorinthians1✓

0–0 · 0–1

COLTolima1

ECUInd. del Valle4✓

0–1 · 1–3

Quarter-finals

BRAFluminense3✓

ARGPlatense2

2–0 · 1–2

BRAPalmeiras3(4)✓

ECULDU3(3)

1–0 · 2–3 · on penalties

ARGEstudiantes2✓

BRACorinthians1

1–1 · 1–0

ECUInd. del Valle1

BRAFlamengo3✓

0–2 · 1–1

Semi-finals

BRAFluminense2(3)

BRAPalmeiras2(5)✓

1–2 · 1–0 · on penalties

ARGEstudiantes0(3)✓

BRAFlamengo0(2)

0–0 · 0–0 · on penalties

Final

BRAPalmeiras73%

ARGEstudiantes27%

Sat Nov 28 17:00

Which country takes the cup

Brazil72.5%
Argentina27.5%

Final group tables

Group A

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	BRAFlamengo	6	+12	16
2	ARGEstudiantes	6	+1	9
3	COLInd. Medellín	6	-5	7
4	PERCusco	6	-8	1

Group B

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	CHICoquimbo	6	+2	10
2	COLTolima	6	+1	8
3	URUNacional	6	-2	8
4	PERUniversitario	6	-1	6

Group C

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	ARGInd. Rivadavia	6	+9	16
2	BRAFluminense	6	0	8
3	BOLBolívar	6	-2	5
4	VENLa Guaira	6	-7	3

Group D

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	CHIU Católica	6	+4	13
2	BRACruzeiro	6	+5	11
3	ARGBoca	6	+1	7
4	ECUBarcelona	6	-10	3

Group E

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	BRACorinthians	6	+4	11
2	ARGPlatense	6	+1	10
3	COLSanta Fe	6	-1	8
4	URUPeñarol	6	-4	3

Group F

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	PARCerro Porteño	6	+4	13
2	BRAPalmeiras	6	+5	11
3	PERSporting Cristal	6	-3	6
4	COLAtl. Junior	6	-6	4

Group G

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	ECULDU	6	+3	12
2	BRAMirassol	6	+3	12
3	ARGLanús	6	-4	9
4	BOLAlways Ready	6	-2	3

Group H

#	Club	P	GD	Pts
1	ECUInd. del Valle	6	+5	13
2	ARGRosario Central	6	+8	13
3	VENUCV FC	6	-4	9
4	PARLibertad	6	-9	0

How we compute it

Every club has an Elo-type rating built from 10,515 matches since 2024 (CONMEBOL cups, Copa Argentina and the top leagues of ten countries).
Goals of each side follow a Poisson law from the rating gap; home advantage is worth 70 rating points.
Extra time counts as a third of a match at the same scoring rate.
A penalty shoot-out is a coin flip (50% each side): a neutral assumption, not a measured rate.
Clubs from high altitude (Bolivia, Quito) come out over-rated: one home advantage is used for every stadium.
Two-leg ties: goal difference over both legs, then penalties. No away-goals rule and no extra time (CONMEBOL Manual de Clubes 2026, 2.4.3).
The final is one match at a venue chosen by CONMEBOL: 30 minutes of extra time, then penalties. We treat the venue as neutral.

Updated 2026-11-01 17:40 (Argentina time)

Illustration: Copa Libertadores: who goes through?

How the Libertadores works

QualifyingThree two-leg rounds for the clubs that do not enter the group stage directly.
Groups8 groups of four, everyone plays everyone home and away. The top two go through; third place moves to the Sudamericana play-offs.
Round of 16 to semisTwo legs. Goal difference over both decides; if still level, penalties. No away goals, no extra time.
FinalOne match at a venue chosen by CONMEBOL. Level after 90: 30 minutes of extra time, then penalties.

Level on points in a group

Order	What decides
1	Matches between the tied teams: points, goal difference, goals
2	Goal difference in the whole group
3	Goals scored in the whole group
4	Fewer red cards, then fewer yellow cards
5	Drawing of lots

CONMEBOL club manual 2026. A criterion already applied is not used again.

Follow the cup

The finalPalmeiras and Estudiantes in Montevideo: 90 minutes, extra time and penalties.SimulatorChange the winner of any tie and watch every club's title chance move.Will an Argentine club win?The chance that the cup goes to Argentina, club by club.Titles by clubWho has the most Libertadores titles, by club and by country.

Questions

How many teams go through from each Libertadores group?

The top two of each group reach the round of 16. Third place is not out of everything: it moves to the Copa Sudamericana play-offs.

Is there an away-goals rule in the Libertadores?

No. In two-leg ties the goal difference over both matches decides and, if still level, the tie goes straight to penalties with no extra time.

Where do the percentages come from?

From a rating of every club built on 10,515 matches since 2024 and thousands of simulations of what is left.

How often is it updated?

Results are pulled automatically every hour. Under the tool you see the Argentine time of the last update.

What does the model assume?

Penalties: 50% each side, a neutral assumption. Extra time: a third of a match at the same scoring rate. There is one home advantage for every club, so high-altitude clubs (Bolivia, Quito) can come out stronger than they are away from home. It knows nothing about injuries or squads.