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Simulate relegation round by round
Pick how each remaining game ends. The tables and the chances of relegation, the title and cup places update in your browser right away. Then share the link with your picks.
Clausura 2026: zone phase · 22 league games left · Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
Games left
1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win, # = exact score. The small numbers are the model chances.
Nov 1, 2026
Belgrano – Barracas1 37% · X 29% · 2 34%
Newell's – Unión1 42% · X 27% · 2 31%
Lanús – Gimnasia (M)1 46% · X 28% · 2 27%
Nov 2, 2026
Platense – Central Córdoba1 47% · X 25% · 2 28%
Defensa – Independiente1 46% · X 27% · 2 27%
Atl. Tucumán – Argentinos1 35% · X 28% · 2 37%
Ind. Rivadavia – Banfield1 39% · X 25% · 2 35%
Nov 8, 2026
Aldosivi – River1 31% · X 27% · 2 42%
Unión – Vélez1 35% · X 24% · 2 41%
Talleres – Estudiantes (LP)1 40% · X 25% · 2 35%
San Lorenzo – Platense1 39% · X 28% · 2 33%
Central – Estudiantes (RC)1 55% · X 24% · 2 21%
You chose 0 of 22 results. With nothing chosen you see the feed chances (20,000 seasons).
- Estudiantes (RC)down100%Relegated: no result left can save it.
- Aldosividown100%Relegated: no result left can save it.
Tables today
Annual table: top
- 1. Boca60 pts
- 2. Central59 pts
- 3. Argentinos57 pts
Averages: last places
- 28. Banfield1.049
- 29. Aldosivi0.825
- 30. Estudiantes (RC)0.452
Annual table: last places
- 28. Riestra23 pts
- 29. Aldosivi19 pts
- 30. Estudiantes (RC)14 pts
Chances with your results
| Aldosivi | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes (RC) | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boca | 0 | 60% | 9.9% | 100% | 0 |
| Central | 0 | 27% | 11% | 98.8% | 1.2% |
| Argentinos | 0 | 13% | 7.2% | 93.3% | 6.7% |
| Belgrano | 0 | 0 | 4.4% | 100% | 0 |
| Vélez | 0 | 0 | 8.1% | 67% | 33% |
| Platense | 0 | 0 | <0.1% | 64% | 0 |
| Estudiantes (LP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51% | 26% |
| Instituto | 0 | 0 | 9.8% | 29% | 71% |
| Banfield | 0 | 0 | 0.1% | 21% | 0 |
| Ind. Rivadavia | 0 | 0 | 1.7% | 19% | 81% |
| Gimnasia (LP) | 0 | 0 | 6.7% | 16% | 84% |
| Defensa | 0 | 0 | 7.8% | 7.8% | 67% |
| River | 0 | 0 | 6.2% | 7.6% | 92.4% |
| Lanús | 0 | 0 | 6.8% | 6.9% | 90.7% |
| Barracas | 0 | 0 | 4.9% | 4.9% | 22% |
| Newell's | 0 | 0 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0 |
| Gimnasia (M) | 0 | 0 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Sarmiento | 0 | 0 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0 |
| Independiente | 0 | 0 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 24% |
| Atl. Tucumán | 0 | 0 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0 |
| San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0.9% | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| Unión | 0 | 0 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Huracán | 0 | 0 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Tigre | 0 | 0 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0 |
| Racing | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talleres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Central Córdoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riestra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How we compute it and its limits
- We play the rest of the season 20,000 times with a match model and count how often each thing happens.
- The model barely beats plain base rates: tested on 480 games of 2025 it picked the outcome 39.8% of the time, and always picking the home side 41.3% (log loss 1.0782 against 1.0837 for the base rates). Argentine football is very even; read the chances as rough.
- Goals of every future game come from the model, so goal difference counts.
- Ties that only Fair Play or a draw of lots can break are decided at random.
- A relegation play-off (desempate) is a neutral game; extra time and penalties are a coin flip.
- In this simulator the chances come from 2,000 seasons per choice, so they can move a little (about one point) from those of the other pages.
What the regulation says
Quotes in the original Spanish.
Se computarán los puntos que los clubes obtuvieran en la Primera Fase de Zonas del TORNEO APERTURA LPF 2026 (artículo 9), más aquellos que los clubes obtuvieran en la Primera Fase de Zonas del TORNEO CLAUSURA LPF 2026 (artículo 15), a efectos de conformar la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026.
Art. 24.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El equipo que alcance la primera posición en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026, será consagrado como “CAMPEÓN DE LIGA 2026”
Art. 24.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)a) En favor del equipo que registre mayor diferencia de goles. b) De subsistir la igualdad, en favor del equipo que hubiese obtenido mayor cantidad de goles a favor. c) De persistir la igualdad, se estará en favor del equipo que se encuentre mejor posicionado en la Tabla General de Fair Play 2026 (artículo 25).
Art. 24.3, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)será de aplicación lo establecido en el artículo 111 del Reglamento General de AFA, que establece la realización de partido/s de desempate.
Art. 24.4, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)La determinación de los descensos y ascensos de y a la Liga Profesional de Fútbol se regirá conforme lo dispuesto en el artículo 93 del Estatuto de la Asociación del Fútbol Argentino.
Art. 26.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Para el caso de igualdad en puntos entre dos o más equipos en posiciones que definan descenso (sean las mismas por promedio o por posición en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026 definida en el artículo 24) será de aplicación lo establecido en el artículo 111 del Reglamento General de AFA, que establece la realización de partido/s de desempate.
Art. 26.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El reglamento establece que descienden el último de los promedios y el último de la anual .
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)Si un mismo club termina en el fondo de ambas tablas, pierde la categoría por los promedios y el otro descenso corresponde al siguiente equipo de la clasificación acumulada.
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)
How to use it
- PickTap 1, X or 2 on each game: home win, draw or away win.
- Fine-tuneIf you like, type the exact score. Goals count for goal difference.
- WatchThe annual table, the promedios and the chances update with every tap.
- ShareThe link keeps your picks. Anyone who opens it sees the same tables and the same chances.
What you pick and what you don't
| Game | What the simulator uses |
|---|---|
| With 1, X or 2 | That outcome; the model sets the score |
| With an exact score | That score, as typed |
| Untouched | The match model, in every simulated season |
| Already played | The real result |
What the simulator simplifies
| Topic | How it counts |
|---|---|
| Fair Play and drawing lots | Settled at random |
| Desempate | Neutral ground; extra time and penalties 50/50 |
| Three clubs level | Two play, the loser meets the third (assumed format) |
Questions
Does the simulator predict who goes down?
No. It shows what would happen with the results you pick. What you leave open is filled in by a model that is only slightly better than plain outcome frequencies.
What if two clubs finish level at the bottom?
They play a desempate. The simulator plays it on neutral ground and, if still level, extra time and penalties are 50/50.
What if no games are left?
Then there is nothing to pick: the tables stay as they ended. See relegation and the annual table.