10→ Football
What if there were no promedios?
We compare two rules on the same simulated seasons: the real one, with promedios, and one without them, where the bottom clubs of the annual table go down. See who wins and who loses.
Clausura 2026: zone phase · 22 league games left · Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
With averages (the real rule), today
Estudiantes (RC) · Aldosivi
Only the annual table, today
Aldosivi · Estudiantes (RC)
Today both rules send the same clubs down.
Relegation chance with and without averages (same simulated seasons)
| Aldosivi | 100% | 100% | – |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes (RC) | 100% | 100% | – |
How we compute it and its limits
- We play the rest of the season 20,000 times with a match model and count how often each thing happens.
- The model barely beats plain base rates: tested on 480 games of 2025 it picked the outcome 39.8% of the time, and always picking the home side 41.3% (log loss 1.0782 against 1.0837 for the base rates). Argentine football is very even; read the chances as rough.
- Goals of every future game come from the model, so goal difference counts.
- Ties that only Fair Play or a draw of lots can break are decided at random.
- A relegation play-off (desempate) is a neutral game; extra time and penalties are a coin flip.
- Without averages we only change the rule at the end: the games and goals of each simulated season stay the same.
What the regulation says
Quotes in the original Spanish.
Se computarán los puntos que los clubes obtuvieran en la Primera Fase de Zonas del TORNEO APERTURA LPF 2026 (artículo 9), más aquellos que los clubes obtuvieran en la Primera Fase de Zonas del TORNEO CLAUSURA LPF 2026 (artículo 15), a efectos de conformar la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026.
Art. 24.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El equipo que alcance la primera posición en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026, será consagrado como “CAMPEÓN DE LIGA 2026”
Art. 24.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)La determinación de los descensos y ascensos de y a la Liga Profesional de Fútbol se regirá conforme lo dispuesto en el artículo 93 del Estatuto de la Asociación del Fútbol Argentino.
Art. 26.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El reglamento establece que descienden el último de los promedios y el último de la anual .
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)Si un mismo club termina en el fondo de ambas tablas, pierde la categoría por los promedios y el otro descenso corresponde al siguiente equipo de la clasificación acumulada.
Qué equipos descendieron a la Primera Nacional 2027 (El Economista) (Oct 15, 2026)
Two relegation rules
Real rule
- The last club in the promedios goes down.
- The last club in the annual table goes down.
- If it is the same club, the next one of the annual table goes down too.
No promedios
- The bottom 2 of the annual table go down.
- Only this season counts; past seasons carry no weight.
How we calculate it
- SimulateWe play the remaining games of the season 20,000 times.
- Apply both rulesIn each simulated season we check who goes down under the real rule and who would without promedios.
- CompareFor each club we count how often it goes down under each rule.
Who wins and who loses
ProtectedClubs with good past seasons having a bad year. The promedio holds them up.
HurtClubs having a good year but dragging weak past seasons. The promedio pulls them down.
Newly promotedThey count only their top-flight seasons. A bad start weighs more.Questions
Why do promedios exist?
So relegation looks at several seasons, not just one. A bad year weighs less for a club that was doing well before.
How many tournaments does the promedio cover?
6, from Copa de la Liga 2024 to Clausura 2026. The math step by step is in how the promedio is calculated.
Where can I see relegation chances under the real rule?
In relegation, with both tables and the tiebreak game.