29→ Cups

Copa Libertadores final

The Libertadores final 2026 is a single match in Montevideo: Palmeiras and Estudiantes. Before kick-off, each side's chance in 90 minutes, extra time and penalties; afterwards, the champion.

Final 2026 · one match

BRAPalmeirasvs.ARGEstudiantes de La Plata

Sat Nov 28, 2026, 17:00 (Argentina time)

Estadio Centenario, Montevideo, Uruguay

BRAPalmeiras72.5%
ARGEstudiantes27.5%

Palmeiras lifts the cup in about 7 finals out of 10 like this one, by our model.

After 90 minutes

58.2%Palmeiras
23.7%Draw
18.1%Estudiantes

Six ways to the cup

  • Estudiantes wins on penalties5.9%
  • Estudiantes wins in extra time3.5%
  • Estudiantes wins in 90 minutes18.1%

Expected goals in 90 minutes: Palmeiras 1.71, Estudiantes 0.84.

Head to head since 2024

They have not met since 2024 in any match of our data (CONMEBOL cups, Copa Argentina, top leagues).

Road to the final

BRAPalmeiras

  • Round of 16vs. Cerro Porteño 2–1
  • Quarter-finalsvs. LDU 3–3 pens
  • Semi-finalsvs. Fluminense 2–2 pens

ARGEstudiantes

  • Round of 16vs. U Católica 4–1
  • Quarter-finalsvs. Corinthians 2–1
  • Semi-finalsvs. Flamengo 0–0 pens
How we compute it
  • Every club has an Elo-type rating built from 10,515 matches since 2024 (CONMEBOL cups, Copa Argentina and the top leagues of ten countries).
  • Goals of each side follow a Poisson law from the rating gap; home advantage is worth 70 rating points.
  • Extra time counts as a third of a match at the same scoring rate.
  • A penalty shoot-out is a coin flip (50% each side): a neutral assumption, not a measured rate.
  • Clubs from high altitude (Bolivia, Quito) come out over-rated: one home advantage is used for every stadium.
  • The final is one match at a venue chosen by CONMEBOL; we treat it as neutral ground (no home advantage for either side).

Updated 2026-11-01 17:40 (Argentina time)

Illustration: Copa Libertadores final

How the final is decided

  1. 90 minutesOne match at a venue chosen by CONMEBOL. A winner after 90 is the champion.
  2. Extra timeIf level, 30 more minutes in two halves of fifteen.
  3. PenaltiesIf extra time ends level too, a shoot-out decides the cup.

How the title chance adds up

Title = win in 90 + win in extra time + win on penalties

Example: Three ways per club, six in all: together they cover every possible outcome.

After the final

RecopaThe champion plays the Recopa against the Sudamericana winner.Titles by clubThe all-time Libertadores table adds the new champion by itself.Penalty shoot-outTry a shoot-out yourself, kick by kick.

Questions

Where and when is the Libertadores final 2026?

Venue: Montevideo. Date: Nov 28, 2026. The Argentine kick-off time and the countdown are above.

Does the Libertadores final have extra time?

Yes. It is a single match: if level, 30 minutes of extra time are played and then, if still level, penalties.

How is the favourite worked out?

From a rating of every club built on 10,515 matches since 2024. It gives each side's expected goals and the chance of every result.

What happens after the final?

The page shows the champion and, once it is published, the next edition. The champion plays the Recopa 2027.