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Derbies in Numbers
Pick a derby and see when it is played, what chances our model gives each side, how recent meetings went and what happens in 10,000 simulated games.
Next Avellaneda derby
Not on the published calendar yet
It shows up here as soon as the organisers publish the date. We check every hour.
Head to head since 2024
6 games: Racing won 1, Independiente won 1, 4 draws.
Racing wonDrawsIndependiente won
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2026 | Racing vs. Independiente | 1–1 |
| 04/04/2026 | Independiente vs. Racing | 1–0 |
| 28/09/2025 | Racing vs. Independiente | 0–0 |
| 16/03/2025 | Independiente vs. Racing | 1–1 |
| 25/08/2024 | Racing vs. Independiente | 0–0 |
| 24/02/2024 | Independiente vs. Racing | 0–1 |
Scope: Liga Profesional and Copa de la Liga games since 2024 in our data (ESPN). Copa Argentina and Conmebol games are not counted. Play-off games count by their 90-minute score.
Avellaneda derby: 10,000 simulated games
- Racing wins
- 3,309exact chance 32.7%
- Draws
- 2,719exact chance 27.4%
- Independiente wins
- 3,972exact chance 39.9%
- Most common score
- 0–11,297 times
The scores that came out most
1,297 of 10,000
1,281 of 10,000
1,177 of 10,000
950 of 10,000
814 of 10,000
790 of 10,000
736 of 10,000
616 of 10,000
Scores are Racing first, Independiente second.
Biggest wins in the batch: Racing 8–2 (1 times); Independiente 6–0 (6 times).
Each simulated game draws a score from the model: goals by Poisson with each side's attack and defence, plus home advantage. The exact chance is what the batch tends to; each batch wobbles a little around it.
Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
The Superclásico in numbers →Next game of Racing →Next game of Independiente →When does your club play? →How much is home advantage worth? →
The derbies on this page
How to read each derby
- Next dateIf the game is already on the calendar, the ticket shows day, Argentina time and chances.
- Head to headThe bar counts wins and draws in the league games of our data, since 2024.
- SimulationPick the ground and see which scores come out most in thousands of games drawn from the model.
Questions
Why is my city's derby missing?
Because the page shows Liga Profesional derbies: our data and our model only cover league clubs, not clubs from other divisions.
Which ground does the simulation use?
The one of the next game if it is set. If not, the ground of the club that was away last time. You can change it with the buttons.
Does the simulation always give the same result?
The first batch does, so everyone sees the same thing. The simulate-again button draws a new batch, which changes a little.