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The Superclásico in Numbers
When the next Boca vs River is, what chances our model gives each side and how recent meetings went. Below, 10,000 simulated Superclásicos to see which scores are normal and which are rare.
Next Superclásico
Not on the published calendar yet
It shows up here as soon as the organisers publish the date. We check every hour.
Head to head since 2024
7 games: Boca won 4, River won 2, 1 draw.
Boca wonDrawsRiver won
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2026 | Boca vs. River | 1–0 |
| 19/04/2026 | River vs. Boca | 0–1 |
| 09/11/2025 | Boca vs. River | 2–0 |
| 27/04/2025 | River vs. Boca | 2–1 |
| 21/09/2024 | Boca vs. River | 0–1 |
| 21/04/2024 | River vs. BocaQuarter-final | 2–3 |
| 25/02/2024 | River vs. Boca | 1–1 |
Scope: Liga Profesional and Copa de la Liga games since 2024 in our data (ESPN). Copa Argentina and Conmebol games are not counted. Play-off games count by their 90-minute score.
Superclásico: 10,000 simulated games
- Boca wins
- 3,589exact chance 35.7%
- Draws
- 2,695exact chance 27.5%
- River wins
- 3,716exact chance 36.8%
- Most common score
- 1–11,286 times
The scores that came out most
1,286 of 10,000
1,262 of 10,000
1,255 of 10,000
952 of 10,000
789 of 10,000
767 of 10,000
696 of 10,000
667 of 10,000
Scores are Boca first, River second.
Biggest wins in the batch: Boca 7–0 (3 times); River 6–1 (3 times).
Each simulated game draws a score from the model: goals by Poisson with each side's attack and defence, plus home advantage. The exact chance is what the batch tends to; each batch wobbles a little around it.
Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
The other derbies →Next game of Boca →Next game of River →When does your club play? →How much is home advantage worth? →
How it is simulated
- Expected goalsThe model estimates how many goals each side scores from its attack, the other's defence and home advantage.
- Every scoreThose expected goals give the chance of every possible score, from 0-0 upwards.
- The drawWe draw 10,000 scores with those chances. The first batch is the same for everyone; the button draws another.
Head to head in our data
| Item | Count |
|---|---|
| Games since 2024 | 7 |
| Boca won | 4 |
| River won | 2 |
| Draws | 1 |
Only Liga Profesional and Copa de la Liga since 2024, by the 90-minute score.
Keep going
Questions
When is the next Superclásico?
The ticket above shows it as soon as it is on the published calendar, with day, Argentina time and chances. If there is no date yet, it says so.
Why is the head to head so short?
Because we only use games we hold with a source: league games since 2024. We prefer a few games with a source to a long table nobody checked.
Can the chances be used for betting?
No. They come from a model that barely beats plain base rates. They help to understand the game, not to guess it.