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Curse or chance?
Enter how often your team wins, draws and loses, the length of the streak and the games in the season. The calculator tells you whether the streak is a rarity or something nearly every team goes through.
Losses: 33.3%
A team like this goes through 8 or more matches without a win in 30.3% of seasons of 30 matches.
That it happens at some point in the season30.3%
That the next 8 matches are exactly that3.90%
A given block of matches is rare; somewhere in a long season, much less so. That is where the curses come from.
Longest streak of the season
Red bars: streaks of 8 or more. On average the longest one is 6.7 matches.
Two questions that get mixed up
These exact games
- That the next 8 are all without a win?
- For a team that wins 33%, it is 3.9%.
- Sounds like a curse.
At some point
- That it happens in some stretch of 30 games?
- For the same team, it is 30%.
- Not so rare after all.
How the math works
- Chance to continueA winless streak goes on when the team draws or loses: 67% per game in the example.
- Game by gameThe calculation tracks how long the current streak is and adds up the chance of reaching the target length.
- Whole seasonThat gives the exact chance that the streak shows up at least once, without simulations.
Questions
Where do my club's numbers come from?
Type them yourself or pick a Liga Profesional club: its wins, draws and losses of the current season are used.
What is an unbeaten streak?
Games in a row without a loss: wins or draws. You can also measure runs of wins or of losses.
Does a rare streak prove something is wrong?
No. With many teams and many seasons, some rare streak always shows up. The tool shows how far chance alone goes.