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Who makes the 2027 continental cups?
See who holds each Libertadores and Sudamericana spot today, and the chance of every club to end up with one.
Clausura 2026: zone phase · 22 league games left · Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
If the season ended today
Libertadores 2027
- Argentina 1 · BelgranoApertura champion
- Argentina 2 · Bocaannual table (#1 in the annual table)
- Argentina 3 · Centralannual table (#2 in the annual table)
- Argentina 4 · Argentinosannual table (#3 in the annual table)
- Argentina 5 · Vélezannual table (#4 in the annual table)
- Argentina 6 · Institutoannual table (#5 in the annual table)
Sudamericana 2027
- Argentina 1 · Gimnasia (LP)annual table (#6 in the annual table)
- Argentina 2 · Ind. Rivadaviaannual table (#7 in the annual table)
- Argentina 3 · Riverannual table (#8 in the annual table)
- Argentina 4 · Lanúsannual table (#9 in the annual table)
- Argentina 5 · Estudiantes (LP)annual table (#11 in the annual table)
- Argentina 6 · Defensaannual table (#12 in the annual table)
Still open: the Clausura champion; the Copa Argentina: Platense, Banfield, Boca; the Libertadores final: Estudiantes (LP); the Sudamericana final: Boca. Each one can move the places of the annual table.
Cup chances by club (clubs with any chance)
| Belgrano | 100% | 0 | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boca | 100% | 0 | 0 |
| Central | 98.8% | 1.2% | 0 |
| Argentinos | 93.3% | 6.7% | <0.1% |
| Vélez | 67% | 33% | 0 |
| Platense | 64% | 0 | 36% |
| Estudiantes (LP) | 51% | 26% | 24% |
| Instituto | 29% | 71% | 0 |
| Banfield | 21% | 0 | 79% |
| Ind. Rivadavia | 19% | 81% | 0 |
| Gimnasia (LP) | 16% | 84% | 0 |
| Defensa | 7.8% | 67% | 25% |
| River | 7.6% | 92.4% | 0 |
| Lanús | 6.9% | 90.7% | 2.4% |
| Barracas | 4.9% | 22% | 73% |
| Newell's | 4.2% | 0 | 95.8% |
| Gimnasia (M) | 3.0% | 0.3% | 96.7% |
| Sarmiento | 2.6% | 0 | 97.4% |
| Independiente | 2.0% | 24% | 74% |
| Atl. Tucumán | 1.0% | 0 | 99.0% |
| San Lorenzo | 0.9% | <0.1% | 99.0% |
| Unión | 0.8% | 0.3% | 98.9% |
| Huracán | 0.5% | 0.4% | 99.1% |
| Tigre | <0.1% | 0 | >99.9% |
- Libertadores place if the season ended today
- Sudamericana place if the season ended today
How we compute it and its limits
- We play the rest of the season 20,000 times with a match model and count how often each thing happens.
- The model barely beats plain base rates: tested on 480 games of 2025 it picked the outcome 39.8% of the time, and always picking the home side 41.3% (log loss 1.0782 against 1.0837 for the base rates). Argentine football is very even; read the chances as rough.
- Goals of every future game come from the model, so goal difference counts.
- Ties that only Fair Play or a draw of lots can break are decided at random.
- A relegation play-off (desempate) is a neutral game; extra time and penalties are a coin flip.
- Copa Argentina and CONMEBOL finals still to be played: our model when both clubs are from the league, otherwise a coin flip.
What the regulation says
Quotes in the original Spanish.
El Campeón del TORNEO APERTURA LPF 2026, quien ocupará la plaza ARGENTINA 1.
Art. 27.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El Campeón del TORNEO CLAUSURA LPF 2026, quien ocupará la plaza ARGENTINA 2.
Art. 27.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El Campeón de la Copa Argentina 2026, quien ocupará la plaza ARGENTINA 3
Art. 27.3, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)El equipo mejor ubicado en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026 (artículo 24), excluidos los equipos comprendidos en los artículos 27.1, 27.2. y 27.3., quien ocupará la plaza ARGENTINA 4.
Art. 27.4, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)su lugar como ARGENTINA 2, será ocupado por aquél siguiente equipo mejor ubicado en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026 (artículo 24)
Art. 27.7, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)mantendrá dicha plaza y su lugar en la posición ARGENTINA 3 será ocupado por el siguiente equipo de Primera División, mejor ubicado en la Copa Argentina 2026, y así sucesivamente según corresponda.
Art. 27.8, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Si un equipo argentino resultara Campeón de la Copa Conmebol Libertadores 2026, el mismo obtendrá una plaza adicional a la Copa Conmebol Libertadores 2027.
Art. 27.9, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Si un equipo argentino resultara Campeón de la Copa Conmebol Sudamericana 2026, el mismo obtendrá una plaza adicional a la Copa Conmebol Libertadores 2027.
Art. 27.10, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Los seis (6) equipos mejor ubicados en la Tabla General de Posiciones 2026 (artículo 24), excluidos aquellos que ya hubieran obtenido una plaza en la Copa Conmebol Libertadores 2027 por alguna de las variantes contempladas a tal efecto por este Reglamento.
Art. 28.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Los clubes participantes de la Copa Conmebol Libertadores y Conmebol Sudamericana deberán pertenecer en todos los casos a la competencia de Primera División en el año en que se dispute la competición internacional para la cual haya clasificado.
Art. 28.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)
The Libertadores spots
| Spot | Who gets it |
|---|---|
| Argentina 1 | The Apertura champion |
| Argentina 2 | The Clausura champion |
| Argentina 3 | The Copa Argentina champion |
| The rest | The best clubs of the annual table without a spot yet |
The league has 6 spots. LPF rules 2026, article 27.
When a club qualifies twice
- Double championIf the Apertura champion also wins the Clausura, the free spot goes to the next club of the annual table.
- Copa ArgentinaIf the Copa Argentina champion already had a spot, its spot goes to the top-flight club that went furthest in that cup.
- CONMEBOL cupsAn Argentine club that wins the Libertadores or the Sudamericana adds an extra Libertadores spot.
- Moving downEvery freed spot moves down the annual table until both cups are filled.
Questions
How many Argentine clubs reach the Libertadores through the league?
6: the Apertura, Clausura and Copa Argentina champions, plus the best of the annual table. A CONMEBOL champion adds one more.
What if a champion had already qualified?
It does not take two spots. The free spot goes to the next club of the annual table, except the Copa Argentina spot, which stays within that cup.
What does the annual table count?
The regular-phase points of the Apertura and the Clausura together. Playoffs do not count. See the annual table.