29→ Cups
Simulate the Libertadores
Tap a tie and change its winner. The bracket rebuilds itself and the title chances are recomputed with 20,000 simulations, next to reality.
| Club | To the final | Champion | Without changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRAPalmeiras | 100.0% | 72.7% | 72.7% |
| ARGEstudiantes | 100.0% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
Pick a winner in any tie, even one already played. "Real" keeps what happened; pending ties follow the model.
Round of 16
Played: Fluminense went through
Played: Estudiantes went through
Played: Palmeiras went through
Played: Platense went through
Played: Flamengo went through
Played: LDU went through
Played: Corinthians went through
Played: Ind. del Valle went through
Quarter-finals
Played: Fluminense went through
Played: Palmeiras went through
Played: Estudiantes went through
Played: Flamengo went through
Semi-finals
Played: Palmeiras went through
Played: Estudiantes went through
Final
20,000 runs per scenario; a penalty shoot-out is a coin flip and extra time is a third of a match.
Updated 2026-11-01 17:40 (Argentina time)
How to use it
- PickEach tie has three buttons: one club, «Real» or «Model», and the other club.
- RealKeeps what happened on the pitch. In a pending tie, the model decides.
- Rewrite historyIf you send another club through, it takes the real winner's place in the next round.
- CompareThe table shows the title chance in your scenario and without changes.
- ShareYour scenario is kept in the page address: copy it and send it.
The real cup
Questions
Can I change a tie that was already played?
Yes. It is a «what if»: the club you pick goes through instead of the real winner and stays in the bracket.
Why does a number move a little when I change something far away?
Because these are simulations: with 20,000 runs the noise is a few tenths of a point. The seed is fixed, so the same scenario always gives the same numbers.
When does the simulator work?
From the round of 16, once the ties are drawn. Before that, in the group stage, use the Libertadores page.