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Playoffs: bracket and chances
See the playoff bracket and each club's chance to reach every round. While the regular phase is on, you see the bracket as it would be if it ended today.
Clausura 2026: zone phase · 22 league games left · Updated 2026-11-01 17:37 (Argentina time)
Clausura: playoffs if the zone phase ended today
Round of 16
Instituto62%Huracán7.6%
Central62%Independiente26%
Boca61%Sarmiento34%
Argentinos57%Gimnasia (M)35%
Vélez57%Barracas45%
Gimnasia (LP)56%Newell's42%
Defensa56%Belgrano44%
River48%Lanús51%
Quarter-finals
Winner of P1Winner of P8
Winner of P2Winner of P7
Winner of P3Winner of P6
Winner of P4Winner of P5
Semi-finals
Winner of C1Winner of C4
Winner of C2Winner of C3
Final
Winner of S1Winner of S2
If the zone phase ended today. Next to each club: its chance of reaching the next round.
Clausura: chances by round
| Central | 100% | 62% | 36% | 21% | 11% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca | 100% | 61% | 34% | 18% | 9.9% |
| Instituto | 100% | 62% | 34% | 19% | 9.8% |
| Vélez | 100% | 57% | 30% | 16% | 8.1% |
| Defensa | 100% | 56% | 29% | 15% | 7.8% |
| Argentinos | 100% | 57% | 29% | 15% | 7.2% |
| Lanús | 100% | 51% | 26% | 13% | 6.8% |
| Gimnasia (LP) | 100% | 56% | 28% | 14% | 6.7% |
| River | >99.9% | 48% | 24% | 12% | 6.2% |
| Barracas | 99.5% | 45% | 21% | 10.0% | 4.9% |
| Belgrano | 99.6% | 44% | 20% | 9.7% | 4.4% |
| Newell's | 94.2% | 42% | 19% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| Gimnasia (M) | 85% | 35% | 15% | 6.4% | 3.0% |
| Sarmiento | 86% | 34% | 14% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Independiente | 66% | 26% | 11% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Ind. Rivadavia | 59% | 22% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Atl. Tucumán | 28% | 11% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| San Lorenzo | 27% | 11% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Unión | 25% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Huracán | 21% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Banfield | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Platense | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Tigre | 0.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Apertura 2026: how it ended
Round of 16
Estudiantes (LP)0Racing1
Ind. Rivadavia1Unión2
Boca2Huracán3
River2 (4)San Lorenzo2 (3)
Vélez0Gimnasia (LP)1
Argentinos2Lanús0
Talleres0Belgrano1
Central3Independiente1
Quarter-finals
Racing1Central2
Unión0Belgrano2
Huracán0Argentinos1
River2Gimnasia (LP)0
Semi-finals
Central0River1
Belgrano1 (4)Argentinos1 (3)
Final
River2Belgrano3
Scores after 90 minutes or extra time; penalties in brackets. Next to clubs still in: chance of reaching the next round.
How we compute it and its limits
- We play the rest of the season 20,000 times with a match model and count how often each thing happens.
- The model barely beats plain base rates: tested on 480 games of 2025 it picked the outcome 39.8% of the time, and always picking the home side 41.3% (log loss 1.0782 against 1.0837 for the base rates). Argentine football is very even; read the chances as rough.
- Goals of every future game come from the model, so goal difference counts.
- Ties that only Fair Play or a draw of lots can break are decided at random.
- A relegation play-off (desempate) is a neutral game; extra time and penalties are a coin flip.
- A knockout game level after 90 minutes goes to either club with the same chance (extra time and penalties).
What the regulation says
Quotes in the original Spanish.
en caso de que un Club se encuentre en zona de descenso o deba disputar un partido desempate para definir descensos (conforme lo establecido en el artículo 26) no podrá disputar las instancias finales. Su lugar será ocupado por aquél siguiente equipo mejor ubicado en la zona correspondiente.
Art. 14.1.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)La disputarán los ocho (8) equipos ubicados del 1° al 8° puesto de cada una de las Zonas (“A” y “B”), cuyos enfrentamientos serán a partido único
Art. 14.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Las instancias de Octavos de Final se disputarán en el estadio del club mejor ubicado en la “Fase de Zonas” definida en el artículo 14.1.
Art. 14.2.1, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)En caso de igualdad al cabo de los 90 minutos reglamentarios, se recurrirá a un tiempo suplementario de 30 minutos (dos tiempos de 15) y de persistir la igualdad, se ejecutará una serie de tiros desde el punto penal
Art. 14.2.2, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Partido C1: Ganador Partido 1 c. Ganador Partido 8 Partido C2: Ganador Partido 2 c. Ganador Partido 7 Partido C3: Ganador Partido 3 c. Ganador Partido 6 Partido C4: Ganador Partido 4 c. Ganador Partido 5
Art. 8.3, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)Partido S1: Ganador Partido C1 c. Ganador Partido C4 Partido S2: Ganador Partido C2 c. Ganador Partido C3
Art. 8.4, Reglamento Torneos LPF Primera División 2026 (Jan 22, 2026)
How the playoffs work
- Who gets inThe best 16 of the regular phase; with two zones, the same number from each.
- Single gameEvery tie is one game. If it is level, there is extra time and then penalties.
- Home sideUp to the semis, the club that finished higher in the regular phase plays at home.
- FinalThe final is played at a stadium the league picks (article 14.5).
Round of 16 in 2026 (article 14)
| Game | Tie | Quarterfinal against |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1st Zone A – 8th Zone B | Winner of game 8 |
| 2 | 1st Zone B – 8th Zone A | Winner of game 7 |
| 3 | 2nd Zone A – 7th Zone B | Winner of game 6 |
| 4 | 2nd Zone B – 7th Zone A | Winner of game 5 |
| 5 | 3rd Zone A – 6th Zone B | Winner of game 4 |
| 6 | 3rd Zone B – 6th Zone A | Winner of game 3 |
| 7 | 4th Zone A – 5th Zone B | Winner of game 2 |
| 8 | 4th Zone B – 5th Zone A | Winner of game 1 |
Semifinals: the winner from games 1 and 8 meets the one from 4 and 5; 2 and 7 meets 3 and 6.
Questions
What happens if a tie ends level?
Two halves of extra time, 15 minutes each. If it is still level, penalties decide it (article 14).
Who plays at home in the playoffs?
The club placed higher in the regular phase. The final is the exception: the league picks the stadium.
Do playoff games count for the promedios?
No. Playoffs count neither for the annual table nor for the promedios (relegation averages).
What will the playoffs look like in 2027?
The LPF announced a single table and a 16-club playoff: 1st against the last club in, 2nd against the second to last, and so on. It is provisional until the new rules come out.