29→ Cups
Recopa Sudamericana
The Recopa pits the Libertadores champion against the Sudamericana champion. Once all four finalists are known there are four possible pairs: here is the chance of each.
Recopa 2027: who lifts it
Before the finals, every club needs two things: to win its final and then the Recopa. That is why the numbers are low.
The four possible pairs
| Libertadores champion ↓ · Sudamericana champion → | ARGBoca60.6% | BRAAtlético-MG39.4% |
|---|---|---|
| BRAPalmeiras72.5% | 44%chance of this pairPalmeiras 64% | 29%chance of this pairPalmeiras 77% |
| ARGEstudiantes27.5% | 17%chance of this pairBoca 68% | 11%chance of this pairAtlético-MG 53% |
In each square: how likely that pair is after the two finals, and who would be favourite in it.
Chance by country
- Brazil62.5%
- Argentina37.5%
How we compute it
- Two legs; the Libertadores champion plays the second at home. Level on aggregate: 30 minutes of extra time in the second leg, then penalties. CONMEBOL, Reglamento Recopa 2024 (checked Sun Nov 1, 2026)
- Each final is computed like on the final pages; each possible pair with the same club ratings, home advantage 70 points.
- A penalty shoot-out is a coin flip (50% each side): a neutral assumption, not a measured rate.
Updated 2026-11-01 17:40 (Argentina time)
How the Recopa works
- WhoThe Libertadores champion against the Sudamericana champion of the same year.
- First legAt the Sudamericana champion's ground.
- Second legAt the Libertadores champion's ground.
- LevelIf the aggregate is level: 30 minutes of extra time in the second leg, then penalties.
A club's chance
Win its final × win the Recopa
Example: Summed over both possible opponents, each with its chance of being champion.
The two finals
Questions
Who plays the Recopa 2027?
The Libertadores 2026 champion against the Sudamericana 2026 champion. The finals: Palmeiras and Estudiantes (Libertadores) and Atlético-MG and Boca (Sudamericana).
Where is the Recopa second leg played?
At the Libertadores champion's ground. If the aggregate is level, extra time is played there too.
Why is the Recopa chance lower than the chance of winning the final?
Because before the finals every club needs two things in a row: to win its final and then the Recopa.
What does the model assume?
Penalties: 50% each side, a neutral assumption. Extra time: a third of a match at the same scoring rate. There is one home advantage for every club, so a high-altitude club can come out stronger than it is away from home.